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2024-12-14 09:39:43

Guotai Junan: Pay attention to the investment opportunities in liquor, beverages, popular food and other fields. Guotai Junan Research Report pointed out that 1) Liquor: Determine ahead of growth, pay attention to the wholesale price trend and the orientation of head liquor enterprises. The report end of liquor industry began to enter the downward period in the second quarter of 2024, and the bottom shock is expected in the first half of 2025. Sales are slowing down, inventory is passively rising, and the approval price is expected to be relatively weak. The Spring Festival in 2025 will experience a stress test period. In terms of price, real estate liquor > high-end > secondary high-end. After this round of adjustment, real estate liquor is expected to recover first, followed by high-end liquor, and the secondary high-end liquor is expected to recover for a long period. 2) Beer and beverage: the performance of beer is divided and the beverage structure is prosperous. In the third quarter of 2024, the number of trips in the summer peak season was stronger than the price, and the number of trips maintained a recovery and growth trend. The beverages with low-cost/high-frequency consumption characteristics benefited significantly and the demand resilience was prominent; The regional brand of beer performance differentiation is better than the national brand, and it is expected to be repaired under the low expectation in 2025. It is expected that the passive upgrading trend and regional brand advantages will continue. 3) Popular food: marginal improvement and structural differentiation. Mass food improved marginally in the third quarter, with obvious structural differentiation. The cost reduction is gradually reflected, low cost and low price become the trend, the advantages of high cost-effective products are highlighted, and the key layout is two ends; The valuation premium of growth stocks has been significantly digested, focusing on growth track snacks, and paying attention to adjusted condiments, catering supply chain and low valuation oversold and high dividend targets.Industrial Securities: The valuation of insurance stocks is in a relatively reasonable position. The Industrial Securities Research Report pointed out that we should continue to be optimistic about the insurance sector and focus on the targets with better performance stability and stronger dividend insurance sales ability. At present, the valuation of insurance stocks is in a relatively reasonable position, but as a strong beta plate, if the equity market further picks up, it may also perform well. There are three catalytic points for the further opening of the subsequent valuation space: first, the long-term interest rate and the performance of the equity market; Second, the adjustment and optimization process of the asset structure of insurance enterprises; The third is the sales situation of dividend insurance. In particular, dividend insurance sales may exceed expectations, and if verified, it will become an important support for opening up the repair space of insurance valuation. Suggested attention: China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, New China Life Insurance, etc.Trump said that he will meet with Amazon founder Bezos next week. US President-elect Trump said on Thursday that he will meet with Amazon founder Bezos next week and stressed that he will continue to contact with technology giants before returning to the White House, including those companies that have signed contracts with the US government. Trump pointed out that he had met with Meta CEO Zuckerberg earlier and had extensive contact with Tesla CEO Musk.


Guotai Junan: Pay attention to the investment opportunities in liquor, beverages, popular food and other fields. Guotai Junan Research Report pointed out that 1) Liquor: Determine ahead of growth, pay attention to the wholesale price trend and the orientation of head liquor enterprises. The report end of liquor industry began to enter the downward period in the second quarter of 2024, and the bottom shock is expected in the first half of 2025. Sales are slowing down, inventory is passively rising, and the approval price is expected to be relatively weak. The Spring Festival in 2025 will experience a stress test period. In terms of price, real estate liquor > high-end > secondary high-end. After this round of adjustment, real estate liquor is expected to recover first, followed by high-end liquor, and the secondary high-end liquor is expected to recover for a long period. 2) Beer and beverage: the performance of beer is divided and the beverage structure is prosperous. In the third quarter of 2024, the number of trips in the summer peak season was stronger than the price, and the number of trips maintained a recovery and growth trend. The beverages with low-cost/high-frequency consumption characteristics benefited significantly and the demand resilience was prominent; The regional brand of beer performance differentiation is better than the national brand, and it is expected to be repaired under the low expectation in 2025. It is expected that the passive upgrading trend and regional brand advantages will continue. 3) Popular food: marginal improvement and structural differentiation. Mass food improved marginally in the third quarter, with obvious structural differentiation. The cost reduction is gradually reflected, low cost and low price become the trend, the advantages of high cost-effective products are highlighted, and the key layout is two ends; The valuation premium of growth stocks has been significantly digested, focusing on growth track snacks, and paying attention to adjusted condiments, catering supply chain and low valuation oversold and high dividend targets.Party Committee of CITIC Group: Firmly support the CPC Central Committee's decision to punish Xu Zuo. According to the news of CITIC Group official micro on December 13th, recently, the Party Committee of CITIC Group held a meeting to convey the decision of the State Supervision Commission of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection to punish Xu Zuo. Xi Guohua, secretary and chairman of the Party Committee, presided over the meeting and made a speech, and members of the Party Committee made statements. Comrades attending the meeting unanimously expressed their firm support for the decision of the CPC Central Committee and the decision of the State Supervision Commission of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Financial Holdings: The foundation for stabilizing the stock market is more solid. Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Financial Holdings, said that the Central Economic Work Conference will stabilize the stock market in the overall target paragraph, highlighting the central government's attention and care for the capital market. Since this round of incremental policies, the stock market has become a weather vane to test the effect of policies to some extent, and it is an important starting point for stabilizing expectations and stimulating vitality. Judging from the signals revealed at this meeting, the foundation for stock market stabilization in the future will be more solid.


The retail sector continued its upward trend of Zhongbai Group for 10 days and 7 boards, and the retail sector continued its upward trend. Zhongbai Group for 10 days and 7 boards, Maoye Commercial and Actually Zhijia had daily limit, and Guangbai shares, Dashang shares, Central Shopping Mall and Hongqi Chain opened higher collectively.Hebai Group: With the help of policy dividends, it will further stimulate new consumer demand and help the company's sales promotion. Hebai Group (000417) said on the interactive platform on December 13th that the company's top 100 electrical appliances actively grasped the new round of "trade-in" policy opportunity, adhered to "policy+activity" to stimulate new consumption potential, and quickly launched more than 33,000 subsidized goods in 8 categories of household appliances and 24 categories of smart homes. Since the implementation of the national subsidy policy in 2024, there have been more than 100,000 rejuvenation machines in stores in Anhui Province, with sales exceeding 400 million yuan, and the sales of household appliances in stores increased by 121% year-on-year. In the next step, the company will seize the time window, continue to integrate resources, closely focus on the national subsidy policy for household appliances in Anhui Province and Hefei consumer vouchers, and further stimulate new consumer demand with the help of policy dividends to help the company's sales increase.Shenzhen accelerates to build a new generation of world-class automobile cities. The total output of automobiles this year is expected to exceed 2.8 million. Over the past hundred years, many well-known "automobile cities" have emerged continuously in the world automobile industry. As one of the earliest cities to develop new energy industry, Shenzhen has a solid foundation for industrial development, actively seizing the historical opportunity of global automobile industry reform and achieving "overtaking in corners" on new energy automobile tracks. In 2023, the output of new energy vehicles in the city reached 1.733 million, ranking first among cities in China. With the acceleration of intelligent process and the high coordination of industrial chain, a "new generation world-class automobile city" is accelerating in Shenzhen. (Shenzhen Special Zone Daily)

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